Why I like ETFs

I have been an active stock picker since 2008-9 and this is the first year I have got my hands-on ETFs

So what are ETFs?

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of security that involves a collection of securities—such as stocks—that often tracks an underlying index

Lars Krojier has written an excellent book (Investing Demystified) on ETFs and you can get a good summary from this video series, I encourage you to spend 30 mins to go through them.

Like always I like a theory but I wanted to see numbers and once numbers stacked in favor of ETFs I got sold and started adding them to my portfolio.

How did I do the numbers?

I compared returns from Jan-2018 to Jul-2020 on a momentum portfolio, large indexes and active stock decisions I took between those dates

Why Jan-2018 as a starting date?

In Jan-2018 I had subscribed to a very well respected momentum service for their sake it will remain unnamed

What were results

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Granules India – A Value Migration Story

According to Adrian J. Slywotzky, “value migration” is the flow of economic and shareholder value away from an increasingly outmoded business design toward others that are better equipped to create utility for customers and profit for the company.

Mr. C Krishna Prasad, Chairman of Granules India gave us a glimpse into the future of the company and their aspiration to move into the upper echelon of the industry

Our Company is in the midst of an evolution. We have built a strong base business that will continue to grow as it gains defensible market share while expanding profit margins as more of the business comes from formulations and quality conscious customers.

While we are currently synonymous with large-volume products, we have taken several steps to move into more complex offerings. We have leveraged our existing capabilities to turnaround Auctus’ API operations which will be vital as we file ANDAs to expand our FD portfolio.

Annual report 2015

It’s one thing saying and its completely different thing delivering it, the below chart depicts their 10-year transformation journey

Many were willing buy generic viagra visit for more to pay because of the high cost of … Read the rest

Ajanta Pharma – Pivoting its fortunes

Let me refresh your memory from this 2015 chart on how Ajanta pharma, Granules India and Suven Life Sciences were operating in different sections of the industry

Five years and things have turned on their head in 2020

  • Ajanta Pharma – Started selling in regulated markets
  • Granules – Set upfront retail shop in the US
  • Suven – Has moved into API manufacturing at scale

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each of them had their own niche and slowly build complementary capabilities. Nothing depicts the pivot made by Ajanta pharma better than below chart

 

from no presence to getting 1/5th of their is sales … Read the rest

Bajaj Finserv – Markings from Annual Report FY20

In March 2020 we got an opportunity to add to scorecard a rock-solid franchise at about ~20 times earnings growing operations in high double digits run by an extremely smart management team with a long runway for growth.

Here are some of my highlights from their annual report

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NB – FY21 and numbers going forward for 12-18 months will not be great so caution before you jump to buy this one
… Read the rest

Cleaning Pandemic Opportunity

Most governments would mandate below to corporate offices/places of business which are opening-up

COVID-19 spreads through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. A person can acquire the virus by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose or eyes.

A key way you can protect workers and others from the risk of exposure to COVID-19 is by implementing appropriate cleaning and disinfecting measures for your workplace.

A combination of cleaning and disinfection will be most effective in removing the COVID-19 virus.

Until a vaccine is produced deep cleaning will be a norm.

So what’s required to clean and disinfect these large corporate offices?

EPA’s website has a list of cleaning products that can be used and there are more than ~420 of them. On closer examination, one would find that Quaternary Ammonium is the most commonly used compound for general cleaning and disinfecting

Quaternary Ammonium Compound is widely used as disinfectant and antimicrobial agent which works by disrupting the cell membrane of bacteria. It is formulated by the alkylation of tertiary amines with a halocarbon. This compound is positively charged polyatomic ion having an alkyl or
… Read the rest

Cheap for a reason?

First disclosure – I am long on Ambika Cotton Mills and sitting on a decent paper loss. As the market cap of the company has nearly halved from its peak in Jan 2018

If someone looks at the company today it will look optically cheap

– 7 times earnings
– 75% of book value
– 50% of Annual Sales

with decent first level economics

– Mid teen ROCE
– Sales CAGR / Profit of ~10% for the last few years
– Now No long term debt with a continuous reduction in the last 10 years
– Knowledgeable and experienced promoter
– Selling a product out of commodity (Cotton) and still holding margins

Even the Credit agencies have a good opinion see the extract from the latest one

Highlights in bold mine

ACML enjoys strong pricing flexibility, aided by its premium positioning in the cotton yarn market and its adequate captive power facilities. This had resulted in stable operating margin at 17.7-19.6%, over the four years through fiscal 2019.Going forward, continued focus on operating efficiency to result in strong operating margin of 19.5 percent and cash accrual of around Rs.100 crore.

ACML continues to have a robust financial risk profile; … Read the rest

Historical Price to Book valuation of Nifty 500 stocks

Last week I was compiling how consistent wealth creators are faring vis a vis there 2008-09 prices.

I wasn’t the only one thinking on those lines, the guys at Ventura did even better and put together a comprehensive 20 year Price to Book Value of Nifty 500 stocks

Fantastic, you can download a copy from here

Some observations

1. Don’t do bottom fishing with 100 percent allocation, the price can go even lower if history is a guide

e.g. I was reviewing one the companies removed from scorecard KRBL P/B of 0.8 sounds cheap unless you see 0.2 in 2008/9

2. Don’t buy just because it’s cheap
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DLF market cap is the same today … Read the rest

Are consistent wealth creators cheap?

Many investors who haven’t seen the 2008-9 GFC crisis are thinking is the current CORONA virus crisis more severe than the previous one? Is it good time to do some bottom fishing in stock markets?

I did an academic exercise to understand how some of India’s most consistent wealth creators are faring vis a vis 2008-09. First I headed to wealth creation studies done by Motilal Oswal to shortlist India’s most consistent stock market wealth creators. Here is a snapshot from report below

Of the above list, I picked top 10 in terms of number of times they appeared in wealth creation studies in the last 5 years and then segregated them in financial services and non-financial services category as below

Non Financials

Bosch
Shree Cements
Cummins
Dabur
Titan
Sunpharma
Asian Paints

Financials
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Suven creates value through demerger

The pharmaceutical component of the company which was carve-out in January got listed today , This is another demerger which was value accretive Pre Demerger Mkt cap was less than INR 3000 crore now separate companies have combined market cap ~INR 5000 crore

You can read a previous analysis of the company here

As far as scorecard is concerned , we would be removing both components (companies) from score card. The Pharmaceutical component at today’s trading price
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My rational

Life science component though close to … Read the rest