My Crypto Bets

A very happy Diwali 2021 to each one of you and I hope you and your dear ones have a fantatsic year ahead.

Before we begin please understand that Crypto is a very new,volatile and speculative asset class, it is not uncommon for prices of some tokens to rise 1000% and then drop 99% in matter of days and minutes

Picture source – Twitter @tanayj

Two more things

  1. All together these Crypto bets are less than 2% of my family’s networth so even if all of them of go to zero it will not create financial ruin for me
  2. I am constantly evaluating new projects and crypto moves at 10x speed compared to equity markets so many bets would be dropped off and many others would be added as my knowledge of the ecosystem improves

Now onto bets

Ethereum (ETH)

By the far the biggest network in crypto space the adoption has seen insane, Ethereum is a supercomputer. Ethereum uses blockchain technology to decentralize every piece of technology or app that we currently use. The much needed move to POS (proof of stake) upgrade is coming to network next year and to me it remains a top project to track… Read the rest

Think Independent

I am amazed by the divide crypto projects have created among the billionaires. In a recently concluded conclave, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said cryptocurrencies have no future

I have a thing for authority bias and if someone who is very smart and whom I respect takes a stance generally that would be a great starting position for me, if you are like me then I think this is something that you should fix.

Why?

First, let’s understand that as investors we have three edges

  • Information edge – Your ability to get valuable information legally gives you an advantageous position on an investment
  • Time edge – Your ability to invest long term and behave like an owner
  • Analytical edge – Your ability to interpret the same information differently from others will give an insight which most would miss, Howard Mark, call its second-order thinking

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Dividend or Growth

Short post

The Oracle of Omaha has beautifully summarised how to adopt a dividend distribution policy through his shareholder letters

 

Unrestricted earnings that can generate incremental earnings equal above generally available to investors should be retained or else they should be distributed back to shareholders.

This model forces the management to be capital efficient and creates long term wealth for shareholders.  Buffett also advised to do a quick dollar retention test to identify if management’s decision played out well over long term or not. Read post on ITC to understand how to run this test.

One problem with this model like all other look-back models is that one has to wait for 4-5 years before realising if the management’s capital allocation decision played out or not. The only option with investors is to rely on past track record and expect that management will continue to make smart decisions.

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Get ready to make next 200% in tail stocks

One of the perennial problems of value investors like me is my urge not to pay up , while the world is different now to the one when I started picking up 20 percent annual growers at 10 PE or less in 2009-10 there were few stocks  in my journey which always looked expensive whenever I have evaluated them Kotak Bank , HDFC , NESTLE just to name a few

Prof Bakshi has a superb article why quality is almost always undervalued from 2013 you can read it here

“More profitable companies today tend to be more profitable companies tomorrow.Although it gets reflected in their future stock prices, the market systematically underestimates this today, making their shares a relative bargain – diamonds in the rough”

How can someone overcome this dilemma in a practical manner ?

This is where the concept of tail stocks comes into picture. The practical implementation can be done in 3 easy steps

  1. Buy 1 stock each of your desired quality company that you would love to add to your portfolio and valuation is the only reason holding you back
  2. Create a google spreadsheet like this
  3. Any time the stock action changes to “BUY” in the
… Read the rest

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Score Card / Premium will not be taking any new subscribers in the current format from 25th June 2020. We are working on a new pay as you like and ad supported model to be unveiled in 2022
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Neuland Labs – Forging Ahead

Last year we did an opening note on Neuland Labs and how the company is moving up in Pharma value chain, The company recently announced its full year revenue and the results are inline with our expectations

CMS segment outgrew other segments and now has ~28% share of total revenues up from ~26% last year, overall all segments had a good year with topline growing by more than 20%

If you peek under hood even more positive aspect was growth of development projects in CMS segment as they move from development to commercial stage the growth could sustain

Source : Investor Presentation

Margin trajectory is also in right direction, management indicated in concalls that they had some one offs in Q4 and are still in investment phase for Unit III

Updating our last year expectation vs Actuals
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5 years of Score Card

A friend suggested to keep track record of companies bought and researched didn’t knew that small request would age into 5 years

Some hits and missed but overall faith in active investing remains

 

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Is real estate turning a corner?

Below are some con-call highlights from last quarter of select companies,

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    • my notes & observations are in red
    • big takeaways are in bold

 

Oberoi Realty Ltd
Vikas Oberoi
Before I begin, I want to share a few quick updates with you. In Q3 we achieved our highest ever pre – sales number for a non-launch quarter <Builder after builder would repeat this statement > The gross booking value stood in excess of 1000 crores, as you would have all seen, the numbers were strongly supported by all our projects. Borivali continued to outperform with 100 units being booked in this quarter and Eternia crossed the 1000 crores booking value milestone

 

I also very strongly feel that there will be a large amount of consolidation and I feel
… Read the rest

What’s the value of Bitcoin

Bitcoin recently hit a market cap of 1 trillion USD – Yes with a “T” a single coin was worth more than USD 57,000 as recently as 21-Feb-21

I have been a firm critic of Bitcoin using largely below rationale

 

 

but is there something that I am missing?

Most of the stuff on internet/twitter is very price driven, the day price appreciates the more noise is made that day without any meaningful analysis on this phenomenon.

After some digging came across a really useful piece that analyses the crypto landscape with data and objectively

CFA Institute has put a very detailed report on Crypto Assets for Investment Professionals while the whole report is fantastic, I will share some of my key learnings from the report. You can access the full report here

  1. Whether we like it or not – Crypto is here to stay 

As the cryptomarket enters its second decade, one thing is clear: Crypto and blockchains are not going away. 2 major financial institutions, such as Fidelity Investments and CME Group, are heavily involved; large endowments, such as those of Harvard University, Yale University, and Stanford University, are investing, alongside such hedge fund legends as Paul … Read the rest

Why stock markets are rising?

It’s 2021, the COVID vaccines are rolling out and the stock markets are making new highs. Here are some charts making sense of this new bull run

India’s overall disposable income has increased 2X in last 8 years

 

But we are not buying more cars

 

 

In a double whammy covid-19 struck, now we have rising disposable income > lockdown means no spending > leading to huge money left in bank accounts

 

This new saved money was searching for returns and the fixed income instruments have become less attractive to savers as interest rates have gone down

so these folks opened equity demat accounts in big numbers – CDSL reported their best ever year of account openings

 

So it is the new money driving markets?

Source

Sure it is but regionally we are much more attractive comparative to other countries for foreign fund flow

with inflows outdoing their previous highs made in 2013

so

  • Low interest rate
  • High retail participation and
  • FII flows

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