Category: Industry Analysis

Is real estate turning a corner?

Below are some con-call highlights from last quarter of select companies,

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    • my notes & observations are in red
    • big takeaways are in bold

 

Oberoi Realty Ltd
Vikas Oberoi
Before I begin, I want to share a few quick updates with you. In Q3 we achieved our highest ever pre – sales number for a non-launch quarter <Builder after builder would repeat this statement > The gross booking value stood in excess of 1000 crores, as you would have all seen, the numbers were strongly supported by all our projects. Borivali continued to outperform with 100 units being booked in this quarter and Eternia crossed the 1000 crores booking value milestone

 

I also very strongly feel that there will be a large amount of consolidation and I feel
… Read the rest

Indian CDMO’s – Charts

Best to read this post on a desktop

CDMO stands for contract development and manufacturing organisation

The CDMO industry started out decades ago as a niche service, offering additional manufacturing capacity or specialty services to pharmaceutical companies. The rise of the CDMOs was fuelled by failure stories in the pharmaceutical industry. In the past, pharmaceutical companies often installed dedicated manufacturing capacities for innovative drugs in development, only to see them fail during phase III of clinical research trials. Thus, the additional manufacturing capacity for the specific drugs was no longer needed. To reduce the risk of expensive over-capacities, the demand for outsourced manufacturing has been rising continually.

Source

In this post we will look at some players through charts to get a sense of whats happening in industry

While Divis Lab is the big daddy as far as market cap is considered, Jubilant and PI are emerging as contribution from their CDMO business is increasing to their overall enterprise revenues

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GRUH Finance – Mr Consistent

Virat Kohli picture is not a coincidence he is “Mr Consistent” run-scoring machine for Indian cricket team just like GRUH finance the money making top-notch HFC.

I have done the comparative analysis of Housing Finance Companies (GRUH/REPCO/CANFIN) in past, you can read them here and here

In 2018 (At Q4 Mar 2018) GRUH Finance and Canfin grew their loan book by 18% and REPCO’s loan book grew by 10% with GRUH having healthy growth in disbursements. The yearly growth had slowed down (from last year levels) for both Canfin home and REPCO while GRUH maintained its consistency

Both GRUH and Canfin homes had better bottom line growth as well

This was driven due to

  • Cheaper costs of funds
  • Significant improvements in cost to income ratio, branch employee productivity gains
  • Improving and retaining net interest margin

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Canfin homes – The out performance continues

Previously I wrote on Canfin homes here

The sustained outperformance was noticed when I was reviewing GRUH and REPCO a few days back

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GRUH Finance and REPCO homes both had decent year however when compared with Canfin homes there was performance was little subdued, which you will see in detail below

The top line (Loan book growth) was good for both companies including loan mix

Bottom line growth has clearly tapered down to 20s from 30s seen in FY12-14 years, both firms exercised good control on operational costs thereby continuing to reduce cost to income (C/I) ratio , GRUH following HDFC is having industry leading C/I ratio

On Contrary CanFin homes had an another fantastic year

Lending practices were tight with minimal net NPA

GRUH’s return metrics remain best in class however others are closely catching up

Overall both companies had a very decent year. But clearly, now 3 years in a row CanFin homes have outdone its fancied peers

Future variables to track

  • Loan book growth
  • Net NPA

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Industry Map

Industry Map and Profit pool analysis – Indian Auto Ancilliary industry

Did it occur to you some companies in an industry continue to make money while others barely survive. The classic case is that of airline industry where large airlines are accumulating huge losses whereas airline component manufacturers are earning above average returns on capital for last 4 decades

Can we find great investments in lousy industries or industry sub segments?

To answer above one has to construct an Industry map and do a profit pool analysis, let’s take help of Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan to understand these terms

From their ground-breaking paper on Measuring the Moat

The goal of an industry map is to understand the current and potential interactions that ultimately shape the sustainable value creation prospects for the whole industry as well as for the individual companies within the industry

A profit pool shows how an industry’s value creation is distributed at a particular point in time. The horizontal axis is the percentage of the industry, typically measured as invested capital or sales, and the vertical axis is a measure of economic profitability

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