Author: Vivek Bothra

Book Notes – The Art of Thinking Clearly

The art of thinking clearly by Rolf Dobelli is one of the best books to sharpen the psychological side of decision making. I loved the book here are my notes

Use below biases as a checklist when making investment or other decisions

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It is much more common that we overestimate our knowledge than that we underestimate it. Similarly, the danger of losing something stimulates us much more than the prospect of making a similar gain.

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Why do we act so irrationally? Because the downside to such behaviour is not always apparent. In the financial markets, things are clear: a financial option on a security always costs something. There is no such thing as a free option,
… Read the rest

Luck vs Skills

What could be more exhilarating than to participate in a bull market in which the rewards to owners of businesses become gloriously uncoupled from the plodding performances of the businesses themselves. Unfortunately, however, stocks can’t outperform businesses indefinitely, Bull markets can obscure mathematical laws, but they cannot repeal them.

Warren Buffett

The pandemic and financial markets recovery in 2020 is nothing short of miracle. No body expected it except few folks on twitter who somehow manage to get all calls right.

Michael Mauboussin’s in his book, The Success Equation gave us a very easy test to identify whether an activity involves luck or skill

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Do Nothing?

2009

Like many MBA Business schools , my alma mater also ran an internal competition to find the best manager of a particular batch, what followed was a series of games and situations at the end of which you have your winner.

One game was to make most money in stock markets in a day – A classic day trading game, all of us were given virtual INR 100,000 and a virtual demat account, the aim was to finish with highest balance possible at the end of the day.

There were many finance wizards at my place and a variety of strategies were employed

  1. One friend read up all the latest Macro and Micro (company specific news) to make calculated bets on items that will move due to news
  2. My strategy was to run some technical analysis (which till date I have limited understanding) and find stocks that can move with momentum
  3. Another friend switched on CNBC 18 at 7:30 am to get hot picks from news Anchor to make his day trading gains
  4. My neighbour in next room had a wait strategy he wanted to see what others are doing and then copy their trades

Next morning – The … Read the rest

Book Notes – The Go-Giver: A little story about a powerful business Idea

 
 

Witten by-Bob Burg and John David Mann

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“Most people just laugh when they hear that the secret to success is giving… Then again, most people are nowhere near as successful as they wish they were”

 

A brief about The Story
The Go Giver tells the story of an ambitious young man named Joe who yearns for success.Joe is a
… Read the rest

The small investor’s edge

Back to my first ever post small is BIG

Over last decade I saw in front of me power of small investors. Small investors are often ahead of institutions

This got me thinking how we can leverage small investor’s power on a modern platform ?

Result – our new facebook group

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ideas on NSE , BSE , ASX , NASDAQ , NYSE, FTSE

 

Looking forward to see you inside … Read the rest

Is it time to buy gold ?

Why this question and why now?

My views on investing in gold have been very clear, I am not a being fan of investing in gold. You can read my previous post here or watch a video I recently did here

But being not a fan is one thing and understanding contradictory view points from experts who sit on the other side of fence is another and as investors when facts change we should change our mind.

Most returns in investing are cyclical as the below picture depicts

image source – Motilal Oswal

Even within an asset class the winners keep changing

Image source – Vanguard Australia

Knowing above information, we know that timing can really improve one’s return. Many market participants would say time in market is more important than timing market. However there are small sub set of investors who have done well using rules to move in and out of asset classes

See below screen grab which shows results of timing and riding up cycles in stocks and gold

image source 

I think you should spend 15 mins to watch this full video from Mike Maloney to appreciate the concept

In what works on wall street Jim … Read the rest

Learnings from BVP memos

A couple of weeks back Bessemer Venture partners (BVP) published their old investment Memos, this gave a rare peek into how VCs think when they are investing in future of technology.

BVP has made some serious returns from companies like Shopify, Twilio who are now public or other technology giants like Linkedin which got acquired

In my past post we discussed how traditional metrics can’t be used to invest in high growth loss making technology start ups.

In this post lets look at some patterns to look for when investing in such companies. All items are in italics below are directly from various Memos

 

1. The bet is on founder/s

One pattern that consistently emerges is that Bessemer’s best investment decisions centered on people. In retrospect, the early products themselves are barely recognizable today. Rather, passionate, analytical and relentless founders zigged and zagged their way to that elusive “product-market fit”, and these memos provide a glimpse of those winning entrepreneurs before they were famous.

Find intelligent, enterprising and ethical founders and once you find them stick to them

 

2. Growth is easiest and early sign

However unlike traditional models of looking at growth in cash, revenues. Look … Read the rest

Balaji Amines – A niche duopoly

When you a see a table like below in an annual report it immediately stands out. In 24 years

  • Sales are up – 100X
  • Profits are up – 155x

All at a decent ROE, no wonder long term shareholders / promoters have clearly acquired transformative wealth

 

Balaji Amines has come on my radar multiple times in last 10 years, however I gave it pass every time as I havent worked much on industry dynamics. But in 2020 while working on Diamines chemical idea I figured out that only Indian competitor creating capacity is Balaji Amines so I had to study them.

NB – I started tracking Diamines chemical idea in score card and we removed as valuations started to become lofty and after digging through I wasn’t able to figure out how will they remove supplier dependency, so we dropped the idea

The Balaji Amines annual report is must read for anyone who is invested in Amines, here are some of the key takeaways that are worth noting

Before take this course on what are amines and come back

Speciality chemicals is a rising tide

Specialty chemical market in India was valued at Rs. 2,357 billion in FY18 and … Read the rest

The agony of rising prices

Even if you are barely active in stock markets , whatsapp messages like below of technology stocks hitting all time high and making 5X or 10X in a year would be coming to you. This is in a year when we are in middle of a global pandemic

Value investors are simply downplaying the fact by calling it as 2000 internet bubble phenomenon and are not participating .

However I reckon that we are trying to fit square pegs (traditional linear models) in round holes (solving Non linear problems)

Evolution has taught us to think in terms of linearity

If you’re still having trouble grasping this, it’s not your fault. Decades of research in cognitive psychology show that the human mind struggles to understand nonlinear relationships. Our brain wants to make simple straight lines. In many situations, that kind of thinking serves us well: If you can store 50 books on a shelf, you can store 100 books if you add another shelf, and 150 books if you add yet another. Similarly, if the price of coffee is $2, you can buy five coffees with $10, 10 coffees with $20, and 15 coffees with $30.

Source – HBR

Drawing … Read the rest

Neuland labs – Opening Remarks

Neuland labs is a 30+year-old Hyderabad-based Pharmaceutical company engaged in R&D, manufacturing and marketing of a wide range of bulk drugs, intermediates and custom synthesis of APIs

The Company operates in the market using two main business models –

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  • Generic Drug Substances (GDS) where they cater to the needs of the Generic players and
  • Custom Manufacturing Solutions (CMS) where they primarily work with innovators by helping them bring critical products to the market.
While they primarily have these two businesses, the expertise within them extends to both small molecules as well as Peptides.
GDS has further two divisions
  • Prime APIs This segment
… Read the rest