Month: January 2017

Relying on Expert opinions

In general on this blog, I have not been very kind to stock market experts ( pundits,opinion baazs), you can read through some of my previous outbursts here

In late 1980s, psychologist Philip Tetlock began an important research projects of the past three decades, studying how experts make predictions, who gets things right, and who gets things wrong. His inspiration came from watching experts predict the future of the Soviet Union — an event that very, very few got right. Notably, most of those who misjudged the event wouldn’t even admit that they got it wrong. The book draws one big conclusion: Most expert predictions are the equivalent of random guesses.

The stock market is a perfect to see this unfolding every day, In this post I am showing you just one example but the place is full of such pundits

Last year around April 2016, India’s first e-commerce company was planning to list on Indian bourses (previously makemytrip and others have also listed but overseas) , The overwhelming opinion  from expert reviewers of IPO was that issue from Infibeam was untouchable

Let’s look at some of them

Some claimed, Infibeam is unsuitable for retail investors

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more

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While few pointed … Read the rest

Actions speak louder than words !

In a recent interview with Guru Focus ,value investor Rohit Chauhan pointed out very important points regarding approaching equity investing. One of the points which stood out for me was below [emphasis mine]

12. Before making an investment, what kind of research do you do and where do you go for the information? Do you talk to management?

I follow the usual process of reading up on the last 10 years of financial statements and annual reports. In addition to that, I also try to understand the economics of the industry and competitive landscape. Finally I try to work through my checklist to analyze the idea from as many view points as possible.

I do not depend on talking directly with the management as much and base my decision more on what the management has shared in the conference calls and how they executed the plans.

As investors we are susceptible to falling for compelling stories created by management & media therefore often are unable to do an unbiased assessment of a an investment situation. This can lead to less than optimum investing outcomes. It pays to watch what management is doing than what they are talking.

As social

… Read the rest