Month: July 2015

Suven Life – Embedded Triggers Triggered

Last year I wrote on Suven Life Sciences, also I did some secondary level maths to get a sense of returns an investor could get buying the business at then market cap (~2000 INR Crores or 400 Million USD) and exiting in 2024

See Snap shot below

Suven-1

The base case CAGR didn’t excite but reading management commentary compelled me to take a tracking position in model portfolio

Over to this year

One thing in AR gave me a Jeff Bezos moment

Suven-2

For the first time management was sounding optimistic (this is coming from a management which is very conservative on record)

Emphasis mine

Management views on past

Despite having grown the business every single year across the last five years, our business sustainability has been consistently questioned. We are perceived as a high risk service-based business marked by volatile quarter on quarter earnings because successful project completion may not necessarily translate into repeat orders if the project does not carry through at the innovator’s end

Management views on Future

The big message that I wish to send out is that this reality is likely to change. The volatility in our business model may moderate extensively following the commercialisation of

Read the rest

Get a framework to understand Value

One of the many difficult question to answer in investing is what drives value of business

What makes one business to trade at a premium to other business in eyes of market participants and how does one identify any such business which is out there and still not recognised by Markets

There is an excellent thread on Valuepickr and I keep going to as it does a great job of answering these question

First lets understand they key value drivers, Most of what I am proposing below is based on this excellent paper by Bear Stearns1 .

Value increases by

  1. Growing operating profit and investing in NPV positive opportunities
  2. Increasing ROIC (by taking capital out of the business or identifying high return projects)
  3. Reducing WACC (Lowering risk)
  4. Extending competitive advantage period (CAP)

Let’s give this a fancy name – 4 pillar framework

Can we put above theory in practice lets tackle each of the above components one by one

1. Growing operating profit and investing in NPV positive opportunities – This sounds fairly intuitive, has two parts

How can a company improve its operating profit – By Expanding operations or By expanding margins (EBIT as % of sales) – Read the rest

Read more

Annual Review – Poddar Developers

Reading well detailed annual reports have their own pleasure. Today, post is on annual review of Poddar developers , I have written couple of times on Poddar here and here

Numbers first

Increase in Sales by 47.97% and increase by 156.88% in PAT

The company made allotment of 11,10,900 Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each fully paid at a premium of Rs. 1115.21/-

Opportunity size is very big, here is extract from AR

The recently released Report of the Technical Group on Urban Housing Shortage (TG-12) (2012-17) has estimated the Housing shortage to be 18.78 million out of which 56.18 per cent is in the economically weaker segments and 39.44 per cent is in the Lower income group categories. As per projections of a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, the housing shortage under business as usual circumstances could go up to 38 million units by 2030

There is a thrust from central govt. as well for affordable housing

 Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation has undertaken studies and extensive consultations with a variety of stakeholders including the private sector, non-governmental sectors, state governments and urban local bodies as well as other Government of India departments as well as

Read the rest

Annual Review – CERA

Previously I have written on CERA here & here

Let’s try and summarize key messages from 2015 annual report

The headlines

  1. Sales up by 23%
  2. Net profits up by 30%
  3. 3,51,000 equity shares issued on preferential basis
  4. Company also entered into competitive tiles market with exclusive tie up with manufacturers of tiles
  5. Company has set up Wind Turbines of 11.825 MW and 1.00 MW Solar Plant which will generate about 90 % of the requirements and it will offset against monthly consumption of energy bill

Management focus

The growth of your Company, much above the market growth, is largely on account of its continued efforts in leveraging the high brand value and product optimization besides deeper penetration in tier 2 markets. These efforts are further fortified by strong and structured marketing efforts, good product quality and after-sales service, and backed by a very loyal distribution network across India.

 

Increasing distribution strength – This is helps company to push new products (like tiles) through existing channels

Improving Product quality – Especially as many products sold are not made in house

Marketing

Your Company’s two-pronged aggressive marketing push of mass media advertising over television and print and partnering with industry organisations like

Read the rest

Read more

What is maintenance Capex ?

Let me share the story of Jenny and her lemonade stand

If you are unable to read post click this link

Slide1Slide2Slide3Slide4Slide5Slide6Slide8Slide7Slide9Slide10Slide11Slide12Slide13Link

 

Erectile viagra canada no prescription deficiency is a humiliating health disorder that lowers a man’s confidence while performing in bed. You can take the medication by emptying the sachet straight into your mouth or sildenafil for women buy by using a spoon. Moreover, http://www.slovak-republic.org/constitution/ viagra cipla 20mg. has been clinically tested on men and has been proven to be effective. But, one major problem that the old age tadalafil overnight shipping reputation for many natural cures for impotence and other male genital related issues.  

Other good articles on the subject

1 and 2

Images – Google image searchRead the rest

Read more

Book Review – Pebbles of Perception

After sometime I have read a book which has oodles of wisdom on each of its page, Laurence Endersen’s pebbles of perception lives with you long after it is read

The book is an all encompasses covering wide variety of topics like choice, Self-esteem, building character, parenting, saving ,investing and living life among many others

I will try to bring out things which I learned

Be Curious

POP-1

ABC: Always Be Curious

Strive to ask right questions

Stay curious. Improve the quality of questions before getting to work on answers. Use more questions to see beyond the obvious answers. Improve group dynamics by ensuring there is enough attention given to asking the right questions. Be interested.

Curiosity will lead to better questions which in turn will lead to better answers

If we search for better questions, ultimately to lead to a better answer,

Provocation is mother of invention

In the world of chemistry provocation is used to force compounds to work in different ways. The same principle can be used with thinking

 Learn Learn Learn

POP-3

Learning is a continuum from ignore to mastery

 

POP-7

and most of us are happy to stay at operational competence because we can survive with operational … Read the rest

Read more