Valuing companies is a combination of art and science The DND Flyway (Delhi Noida Direct Flyway) is an eight-laned 9.2 km access controlled tolled expressway which connects Delhi to Noida, an industrial suburb area. It was built and is maintained by The Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd which we will try to value in this post
We discussed few valuation methodologies for a fast grower like CERA in previous post in today’s post we will try to value a slow grower /annuity kind of business
We will use below methods
Company Type | Valuation model | Basis | Driven by | Assumptions |
Slow Growers | Average PE Value Method | The company is valued at its average PE for last 5 years | Earnings | Implicit assumptions that company would trade at average PE |
Economic Value Method | Current EPS is converted to perpetuity with model discount factor | Earnings | Share is treated as perpetual bond | |
Liquidating business/ Cyclical / No growth business | Graham Number | Theoretically, the maximum price that a defensive investor should pay for the given stock | Earnings | To be used in bear phase for cyclical business |
Fast growth Companies | Graham Intrinsic Value | The formula as described by Graham in the 1962 edition of Security Analysis | Earnings | The formula’s inherent assumption |
Fast grower | Historical Earnings growth | Value of stock when existing EPS growth rate is extended | Earnings | PE assumptions |
Fast grower | Sustainable Earnings Growth | Value of stock when existing ROE growth rate is extended | Earnings | PE assumptions |
All Companies | DCF | Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them with a discount rate to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. | Cash Flow | Growth , discount assumptions & projections |
All Companies | Reverse DCF | Gives view on market implied growth | Cash flow | Market price is true reflector of growth expectations |
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Let’s start
Average PE Value Method
To calculate the average P/E ratio you need to go through the process and obtain data for the earnings per share for the last 5 years. I prefer to get 5 years as we know earnings per share can be altered by one time sales of plants or equipment and using one year average may not give satisfactory results
Then find the stock high and low prices for those corresponding years by using Yahoo Finance / NSE website
For Noida the numbers are below
Average PE for a single year is average of High and Low PE
Now calculate average earnings for last five years and Average of Average PE 🙂
Pause and evaluate those two numbers , in value stocking it is about getting things right in future even though we are deriving future from historical data
Ask yourself can this company command a PE of 12 going forward ? a company whose earnings are growing at roughly inflation rate, I would be skeptic and would lower the average PE number to 8.5 ( No real growth company)
Now as far as earnings are considered they are increasing at inflation rate so there no point in taking average historical figure put yourself in shoes of a conservative investor and I am one so I would take last year’s earnings as my base increase per share earnings by 7% to get revised figures
This is the value of share based on revised figures
Economic Value Method
If firm doesn’t grow its earnings faster than inflation that we can use this method, Current EPS is converted to perpetuity with model discount rate, the big questions is what is the discount rate to apply ? For a no real growth company, I would keep discount as 12% [My assumption]
Value of Share = [Current EPS / Discount rate (as decimal)]
Get the trailing EPS value from Financial websites, For Noida I got this from Yahoo finance – INR 3.74
Apply discount rate = 12% (0.12)
Investopedia explains
A figure that measures a stock’s fundamental value by taking into account the company’s earnings per share and book value per share. The Graham number is the upper bound of the price range that a defensive investor should pay for the stock. According to the theory, any stock price below the Graham number is considered undervalued, and thus worth investing in
The formula for calculating Graham number is below
Value of share = Graham Number, For NOIDA
Graham Number is INR 38
Discounted cash flow method
Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them with a discount rate to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one
This is DCF formula
What is free cash flow for NOIDA ?, below table gives a view in INR million
Using above lets calculate per share DCF value using average FCF value
Few key calls outs
FCF growth rate is based on last 4 year’s FCF CAGR
Terminal growth rate is Zero as toll way will become free for commuters
Like last post we get a range of fair values for Noida
Method |
Value per share (INR) |
Average PE Value Method |
27 |
Economic Value Method |
31 |
Graham Number |
38 |
DCF |
36 |
Hope both the posts helped you to get insights in valuing companies, always try and value companies using multiple methods and get a band of fair values
Our third and last post on valuation series would on reverse DCF
Till then happy investing
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