Research Universe Page Updates

As requested the research universe page is updated

Research Notes 2014/5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2024
Aarti Drugs Link
AIA ENGINEERING LTD
AJANTA PHARMA LTD Link1
Link2		 Link Link Link Link
AMBIKA COTTON MILLS Link
ASHIANA HOUSING LIMITED Link Link Link Link
Link2		 Link Link
ASIAN GRANITO Link
ASTRAL POLYTECHNIK Link
ATUL AUTO Link
AVANTI FEEDS LTD Link Link
BAJAJ FINANCE Link
BAJAJ FINSERV Link Link Link
BALAJI AIMINIES Link
BELLAMY (International) Link
BITCOIN (CRYPTO) Link
Brigade Enterprises Link
BSE Limited Link Link
CANFIN HOMES Link
Link2
CERA SANITARYWARE LIMITED Link1
Link2		 Link Link
CRYPTO Link
DMART Link
E2E Networks Link
EROS International Link
FRESHTOP FRUITS Link1
Link2
Godrej Properties Ltd Link
GOLD Link
GRANULES INDIA LIMITED Link Link
GRUH FINANCE LIMITED Link Link Link
HAVELLS INDIA Link
HDFC BANK Link
HELIUM (CRYPTO) Link
IIFL HOLDINGS Link
INFIBEAM Link
IPCA LAB Link
ITC Link
JAGRAN PRAKASH Link
JM Financial Link
KITEX GARMENTS LTD* Link Link Link
LAOPALA Link
Link
LEEL Electricals Link
Link2
MANUGRAPH INDIA Link
MAX INDIA Link
Link2
MOIL Link
NBCC Link
Neuland Labs Link Link Link
NOIDA TOLL BRIDGE Link1
Link2
Oberoi Realty Ltd Link
PAGE INDUSTRIES Link
PAYPAL INC Link
PHOENIX LAMPS Link
… Read the rest

Curios Case of Suzlon Energy

Suzlon is one of the leading global renewable energy solutions providers. It is a vertically integrated Wind turbine manufacturers. It also undertakes installation and Operation &Maintenance (O&M) of all Wind turbine sales. Operations include design development and manufacturing of all major components, including rotor blades, tubular towers, generators, control equipment, gears and nacelles. Apart from manufacturing, it offers a full gamut of wind project planning and execution services, including wind resource assessment, infrastructure and power evacuation, technical planning and execution of wind power projects. It also offers O&M services in India and overseas countries.

It is one of most public owned (in terms of % owned by general shareholders) and discussed stock in India.

Its revival is one of most interesting financial case studies, the company was struggling to pay its due for long time is not a hidden fact ,

In 2020 it went for it’s first recent debt restructuring

I have simplified in below table how the company went about it

Type Debt (INR Cr) % Total Treatment
Part A 5188 37.76% Rate Reduced, Term Extended
Part B 4,100.00 29.84% Convert to Equity (optional)
Part C 4453 32.41% Convert to Equity (Confirmed)

Below is proposal’s extract from their … Read the rest

How to avoid cost price bias?

this blog is alive

The focus would be active Indian investing here, while substack would continue to focus on passive Indian and any global investing

I am tracking my investments using google spreadsheet, sample below

there is an issue with this.

it anchors me to price paid for the stock and I ignored if the stock is doing well or not relatively. The cost price bias has given me a false sense of comfort it promotes Endowment effect, I lose objectivity in analysis.

I posted this on twitter on BAJAJ Finserv

 

As an existing holder like me who is holding the stock from lower levels, because of way I track portfolio (cost price driven), I will miss that the stock has done nothing for last 3+ years

This approach misses the

  • huge relative underperformance even against index, let alone other stocks
  • opportunity cost of not deploying capital effectively

So I think we should listen to William O Neil and not track portfolios like this, here is what he wrote in his book

 

“To help you avoid the price-paid bias, particularly if you are a longer-term investor, I suggest you use a different method of analyzing your results. At

… Read the rest

Also Writing on Substack

Update August 2024

Susbstack is a great platform for newsletter writers, so I thought I will move by blog there however, it still lacks many features that are on WordPress based on my 3-4 months with platform

So I will keep this blog … Hooray!!

 

 

__________________________________

 

 

Moved writing to substack, all existing email subscribers have been moved, and people who were following WordPress to read content on this site have to now follow this substack (there wasn’t an automated way to do it)

All old posts are already there & upcoming posts will be posted there as well, I was not able to move your comments  those will be archived safely

This site may be deprecated and repurposed, I am extremely grateful to you for reading this blog from 2011 and I hope I can continue to get your time once I start posting on substack

Happy Investing

 

 … Read the rest

How did I invest during Covid in 2020?

Covid has become a bad memory, thank god for it. In investing, we hear – Buy when there is blood on the street and to be greedy when others are fearful. Covid was a perfect example to evaluate what you actually did

Three years have passed and I thought it will be a good exercise to see if it’s easy to do the right thing when there is madness all around

A glimpse of the madness

Nifty dived close to 40% from 11,000  in the space of days, this is such a rare event that it’s difficult to think about it let alone stomach it

What was one of my first decisions –  I need to protect profit in one of my big profit positions Suven Life Sciences, My rationale was

Life science component though close to Mr. Jasti’s heart, it is pure play speculative bet and tough to put a valuation figure while the pharmaceuticals component is something the management may get rid off and then at ~INR 4500 crore market cap was richly valued

In hindsight this was not a great move as Suven Pharma went on to become stronger and stronger, I course-corrected and later recreated this … Read the rest

What can derail your momentum?

In 2014 I wrote, The 21 success principles – it is 2023 and they have stood the test of time

Today I wanted to share things that can derail your momentum and stop you from achieving your best

  1. Easy Money can blindsight you and will force you to stop working on yourself, try and avoid this trap
  2. Remaining in your comfort zone will limit your growth
  3. Doing things cause everyone is doing it, this is a sure shot way to live a miserable life
  4. Chasing the fad – Never works
  5. Health – be vigilant to not neglect it
  6. Bad habits – like eating junk, gambling they form easily and become a lifelong bane
  7. Real friendship is rare treasure it, In life most folks would be fair-weather friends know this
  8. If you are employed, better plan your career otherwise you are going to get a rude shock in 10 years
  9. if you don’t learn, you can’t get ahead in any sphere of life
  10. Learn to communicate or you would be paid less than your worth
  11. if you avoid hard things in life – Exercise, Transparent conversations and soon your life would be hard
  12. Average days would become Average months that would
… Read the rest

Leverage and Luck

“Give me a lever long enough, and a place to stand, and I will move the earth.” – Archimedes

In my 15 years as an investor, I have avoided leverage, it’s a huge multiplier both on the upside and downside like a double-edged sword. Part of the reason to hate leverage was a lot of bad outcomes I saw for people who used leverage.

After doing my own studying and encouragement from fellow investors, I made an exception – I used leverage for the first time to buy an asset – An investment property (real estate/ house) in 2021.

I have written many articles on not getting into property investment and sticking to shares, in fact, I have gone to an extent by creating a calculator which shows investing in equity will have superior returns to property all things equal.

The theory is theory and it is why practice varies, an investment property can be brought for $0 cash outflow, especially in Western countries. I will take you through my personal practical example and conclude on why you should re-think if you have a negative view on leverage and or property investing.

How can you acquire an asset for $0?… Read the rest

Timing an Index Fund

Passive index investing is gaining momentum (pun intended) among millennials. One of the questions that popped into my head

what would be better to buy an index hold or buy and sell using some easy-to-follow quantitative rule?

I ran some numbers

  • ETF – ASX VAS, Invests in Top 300 companies in Australia, It’s our version of USA S&P 500 or NIFTY 50 in India
  • Time Frame – Last 5 years
  • Strategy 1 – Bold and Hold (100 units)
  • Strategy 2 – Buy 100 Units if Current Market Price goes above Simple Moving Average (SMA 20) and Sell 100 Units if Current Market Price goes below Simple Moving Average (SMA 20)
  • The first entry is the same for both strategies

If you are a color person then every time the blue line (price) goes above the red line (SMA 20) you buy and sell if the blue line falls below the red line you sell

The initial results are unbelievable, Strategy 2 beats Strategy 1 by 2X

Also following this quantitative technique one can almost perfectly be saved from the covid crash. Given I was interested in the initial results I wanted to understand what would be benefits in real life … Read the rest

Leeds , UK

Quant based smallcase worth adding to your watchlist

Came across another smallcase that is free and has a very good track record.

ARQ Prime is a long-only equity portfolio

ARQ Prime recommends stocks for investment based on a set of rules, free from human intervention or human bias. In the world of investing – it is called “Smart Beta”. ARQ Prime adopts the time-tested and proven rules for investing in stocks. ARQ scans all types of stocks to pick Winners: Value stocks, Quality stocks, High Momentum stocks, and Growth stocks across the market cap.

Their CEO talks about this product in an interview for moneycontrol , it does a weekly rebalance so that may put off some of you but is performance has been really good

 

 

 

there is not much info on stock selection criteria most likely it’s proprietary and not open source, but given its performance, it’s most likely based on momentum strategies.

Their website claims that drawdown is smaller compared to markets

Its strong risk management system cuts the losses early and allows profits to be big, thereby maximizing profits and reducing drawdowns/losses

Using the smallcase graph we can verify it managed drawdown better than the index, even the recent dip in 2022. … Read the rest